According to forecast from IATA Consulting, aviation demand in Hong Kong will continue to grow steadily over the next 20 years.

The base-case demand forecast from IATA Consulting shows that by 2030:

• Annual passenger volume at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) will reach 97 million, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.2%
• Annual cargo tonnage will reach 8.9 million, increasing by a CAGR of 4.2%
• Annual flight movements will reach 602,000 with a CAGR of 3.2%

These traffic forecasts have taken into consideration factors such as cross-strait direct flights between the Mainland and Taiwan, and the expansion of the Mainland high-speed rail network.

In 2012, the actual traffic performance for passenger volume and flight movements were both three years ahead of the HKIA Master Plan 2030 forecast. Cargo tonnage was also ahead of the forecast by one year. Hence the capacity of the existing two-runway system may reach saturation earlier than expected.

For more details about IATA Consulting's systemic studies on HKIA's long-term air service needs, please click here.